Would it require the world to function in mysterious ways or in ways that differ dramatically from the ways that are well established by science? structuralism, functionalism, behaviorism, humanism. Several of the younger trees by Beaver Creek stream are now nothing more than two-foot posts sticking out of the ground; the treetops are nowhere around, and the top of each stump comes to a curious point. Observable outcome: As my horoscope says, at 3:00 today my bank will call and tell me that they have gone bankrupt and my life savings is lost. Neither of the two alternatives has been ruled out, and either is more probable than that she is one of the very few people who has perfected special coin-tossing skill. But if Halley was right about Newtons views, there would be detectable regularitiescertain comets would be found to follow fixed elliptical orbits around the sun. observation - question - hypotheses - predictions - results of investigation - conclusions Which are true of a hypothesis? The husband said he put the pipe somewhere, and the plumber had no way of knowing where; how often is someone going to be able to sneak in and find something like that without being caught? Repression is the mechanism by which we push out of awareness and into our unconscious memories of deeply traumatic childhood experiences. It isnt possible to say with precision how improbable the outcome must be to count as sufficiently improbable. I subconsciously wanted the test to succeed, so I tended not to count less severe colds that I otherwise would have counted. An argument whose correct form, assuming that P is the explanation and Q is the observable outcome, is this: An explanation that can apply to a wide range of observable outcomes. This is what happened with Torricellis hypothesis. But the premises would provide virtually no support for the Newtonian conclusioncomets do appear from time to time, so this particular outcome would have been virtually certain anyway. b. You should be a bit more suspicious of explanatory arguments in which the observable outcome preceded the explanationbut for psychological, not logical, reasons. This interpretation of the saying is unfalsifiable and can receive no logical support from the nature of ones experience. For, as researchers have shown, we have a natural tendencytermed a confirmation biasto look for outcomes that support our preferred explanation rather than those that might falsify the alternativesto look, for example, for worshippers who escaped rather than thinking also about those who drowned. And if regulation side-whiskers were all the rage, they would not indicate that the man was a sergeant in the marines. For the observable outcome of premise 2 is something that we would fully expect, even if the explanation were false. So far as anyone at the end of the 17th century had been able to tell, the motion of comets was utterly irregular. d. a and c Which of the following statements best distinguishes hypotheses from theories in science? That smacked of the sea. 4) Regulation and homeostasis. a. situational causes Experts are tested by Chegg as specialists in their subject area. After significantly departing from the mean level of competence, we would expect that the next attempt would be closer to the current mean. It is conducted to have a better understanding of the existing problem, but will not provide conclusive results. b. It is easy to invent a convenient explanation for data you already have, but then to disregard failure to fully satisfy the total evidence condition. Just as a good explanatory argument rules out coincidence, it also rules out deception. A. And, though you may not find the ifthen premise, there are two things you can always expect to find if the argument is explanatory: reference to the explanation, often with a discussion of why it is better than alternative explanations; and reference to the observable outcome, often with a discussion of how unlikely that outcome would otherwise Is the outcome stated precisely? Senator Claiborne Pell (D-RI), wrote an alarmed letter to the secretary of defense; he had discovered the word simone (pronounced si-MO-nee) in the secretarys taped speeches, as well as in the speeches of the secretary of state and of the presidentwhen the speeches were played backwards. Skeptics have suggested another explanation: Perhaps this is because of peculiarities in each islands food. The lad said that Suzy and the hired man were up in the hayloftthat Suzy had her dress up and the hired man had lowered his trousers. It includes the presumption of causation. c. rewarding sportspersonlike behavior The researchers also monitored a drought that killed off 85 percent of the finches on an island one year. d. Outline necessary changes. Women are built for giving birth, and the long haul that involves. , Scientists at the University of Manchester have discovered a distant planet where virtually no one would have expected it to be, orbiting a pulsar star, PSR1829, which was born during a supernova. WebExploratory research: Definition. Then NASAs Donald Bogard compared the meteorites fingerprint of noble gases to those found on Mars by the Viking landerand discovered that they matched closely. Web16.4 Summary of Chapter Sixteen. applying a set of skills to understand and evaluate information. . her own conscious experience. C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. When established scientists reject offbeat theories, defenders of such views love to cite these cases. The plumber says he went to a house, while the man says he lives in an apartment; how often does someone make that sort of mistake? Develop an action plan. a. parents An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. In a research study, any condition applied to subjectsthose in the treatment groupthat is not applied to subjects in a control group. Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. An observable outcome for which there are fewer possible explanations is that much more improbableand, thus, is that much logically stronger. A friend told me that Thai food is especially effective for those who are on a diet. Rabinoff claimed that this was evidence for a causeeffect relationship between TM and the weather. Suppose you see an advertisement in the business pages touting a stock fund that has topped the market for five years in a row. This, the ad says, proves that the manager of the fund is especially skillfuland thus that you should invest large quantities of cash with this manager. The first premise states that the theory, or the explanation, really does enable you to predict the facts, or the observable outcome. c. Use officials who do not tolerate aggression of any kind on the field. The increases to Work in Process-Roasting Department for Highlands Coffee Company for May as well as information concerning production are as follows: Workinprocess,May1,1,150pounds,40%completed$1,700CoffeebeansaddedduringMay,10,900pounds28,600ConversioncostsduringMay12,504Workinprocess,May31,800pounds,80%completedGoodsfinishedduringMay,11,250pounds\begin{array}{lr}\text { Work in process, May 1, 1,150 pounds, } 40 \% \text { completed } & \$\hspace{10pt}1,700 \\ \text { Coffee beans added during May, 10,900 pounds } & 28,600 \\ \text { Conversion costs during May } & 12,504 \\ \text { Work in process, May 31, } 800 \text { pounds, } 80 \% \text { completed } & - \\ \text { Goods finished during May, } 11,250 \text { pounds } & -\end{array} Draw conclusions and make revisions. Also termed a theory or an explanatory hypothesis. a person's unconscious. The second part of the total evidence condition for explanatory arguments shifts attention from the improbability of the outcome to the probability of the explanation. In which of the following situations is aggression likely to occur? C. It's People in the South tend to rate the President more favorably than do people in the North Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004. Both a body of knowledge and an intellectual activity encompassing observation, description, experimentation, and explanation of natural phenomena. For example, we can ask about the frequency of singular explanationshow frequently butlers leave their fingerprints on candlesticks or how frequently marines have tattoosbut it isnt helpful, probably not even meaningful, to ask about the frequency with which Newtonian mechanics is true. But it turned out that concrete was available only when mild weather had been predicted. Relatives gather close to the victim, wailing, chanting, and covering the victim with a funeral cloth. Cognitive psychology focuses on studying ________. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? I thought it was the wind blowing up the canyon, like it does, you know, except it was real still. a. reactive versus instrumental If an explanation does already exist, then the outcome has a high prior probability and the argument is logically weak. You probably already suspect that its the set of all even numbers; but before I make you commit to that answer, I offer you the opportunity to test your answer by suggesting one more number that is either in or out of the set. The line on the chart, I argue, does pass through the six plotted points but otherwise zigzags wildly, say, as follows. Favoring outcomes that rule out alternative explanations is an especially powerful strategy. In short, coincidence has not been ruled out, so we cannot judge this to be a logically strong argument. 4,38,916,2732,. Concrete, according to the campus architect, was poured whenever the schedule required and the necessary materials were available. WebApplying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? Improved outcome: An image looking like the outline of the Virgin Mary was seen on the wall of a house, and it remained there when the window of the neighboring house was opened. Second part: Reasonably high prior probability for the explanation; the causal mechanismnatural selectionis fairly well understood, and no alternate seems more likely. Because the observable outcome rules out the leading alternative explanations, its prior probability is far lower than the anecdotal argumentand thus the argument is logically much stronger. b. we know that, option c. An increase in fam. d. irreverent But when praised for a good landing, the student usually followed with a poorer landing. And in the larger world, organisms themselves are organized into many levels: populations, communities, and ecosystems within the biosphere. Part of the reason, presumably, was because the jury saw that if they carefully thought about alternative explanations, they might find one with a higher prior probability than the one Lincolns opponent was arguing for. If you find a dead body, for example, with assorted fingerprints on the candlestick, you are beginning with the observable outcome; only later does the detective invent the explanation that the butler did it. Influenced by the confirmation bias, you proposed a number that would confirm your preferred answer. How in the world did you deduce that? I asked. a. instinct theory . Theories are hypotheses that have been proved. the scientific study of mind and behavior. Abby tells her therapist that she tripped a small child who got in her way, and her therapist accepts this information without judgment. a. many coaches, parents, and teammates accept and reinforce the modeling of aggressive acts Formulate a hypothesis. No more mice. Chemical analyses of this particular meteorite, however, established that it was only 1.3 billion years old and made of cooled lava. Explanatory Impotence Explanatory impotence is the opposite of explanatory power. A relationship between variables in which they increase (or decrease) together. Suppose I have heard that vitamin C prevents colds; I dont know whether to believe it but decide its worth looking into. thoughts and their relationship to our experiences and our actions. hypothesis? My heads-tossing student may have been skillful, or she may have gotten lucky . I know of some people with cancer who smoke. You never talked about him like he was a heronever made any effort to keep his memory alive with letters and pictures. All rights reserved. Hypotheses are guesses; theories are correct answers. Punishment motivates learning better than does reward.. For general explanations, a good way to check for simplicity is to ask. William James was the ________. To illustrate how this strategy is related to the prior epistemic probability of the outcome, suppose I propose the following fanciful explanation: I am bewitched, so that gravity has no affect on me whatsoever; the only reason I am able to walk around on the ground is because of magical shoes that counteract the bewitchment when I wear them. Again, the two sorts are subject to the same logical standards, though we can shape our inquiry a bit differently in each case. Dr. Sarkeesian observes and records how watching cartoons influences heart rates. In the late 1950s, a doctor reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association that stomach ulcers could be effectively treated by having a patient swallow a balloon connected to some tubes that circulated a refrigerated fluid. Pa! exclaimed the youngster, they are getting ready to pee on the hay! Well, son, replied the father, youve got the facts all right, but have reached the wrong conclusion. Lincolns client, we are told, was acquitted. c. with the intent to harm psychologically. \, 4,83,169,3227,-4,-\frac{8}{3},-\frac{16}{9},-\frac{32}{27}, \ldots In this statement Stern clearly indicated that _________ morality would not be accepted or tolerated. The requirement that it be possible to specify some observable outcome of an explanation that could prove it to be false. Record the facts. He claims he has no knowledge of the Molotov cocktail. , For many years, ship captains navigating the waters of Antarctica have been intrigued by rare sightings of emerald icebergs. This is a way of emphasizing the importance of an improbable outcome. WebWhich of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Statistics and Probability questions and answers, Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Nearly half the party died before an April rescue, the survivors cannibalizing the dead. That a deductive failure and an inductive success can share the same form reminds us of an important lesson: deductive arguments rely only on the correct form condition, while inductive arguments also have recourse to the total evidence condition. Nevertheless, we clarify and evaluate the argument just like the comet argument. Psychoanalytic theory focuses on ________ and early childhood experiences. His left arm has been injured. For each of the arguments below, offer an alternative explanation that already exists, which thus renders the outcome probable and the argument logically weak. What is the name given to this step of the scientific method? a. Astrology is reliable. My evidence? b. violence is modeled by young amateur hockey players Step 2. An engaging and more detailed account of this experiment can be found in Keith Arnolds Pascals Great Experiment,. Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. The girls explored the area on ____ bicycles. For example, our hypothesis in this case could be that the toast didn't toast because the electrical outlet is broken. [6] The probability of two consecutive years of success is no higher than .50 times .50, or .25. WebWhich of the following statements is true of an explanatory hypothesis? Treatment: in a research study, any condition applied to subjects - those in the treatment group - that is not applied to subjects in a control group. Healthy people who rate their health as poor know enough about their health to know that they are not as healthy as healthy people who rate their health as excellent. Given that they are elderly and in the low end of the healthy group, they will die sooner. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles B. Thus, the prior probability of beating the market in a single year is roughly .50. He has just come from the tropics, for his face is dark, and that is not the natural tint of his skin, for his wrists are fair. First American psychologist. Here is one of the classic exchanges:[4], Dear Abby: Im a traveling man whos on the road five days a week. d. a and b. e. a and c. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. D. It excludes the presumption of It always does reappear after an eclipse when much noise occurs. So my jealousy explanation flunks the test for low prior probability. a. with the intent to harm physically. Sample answer. The train of reasoning ran, Here is a gentleman of a medical type, but with the air of a military man. 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Lincolns client, we are told, was poured whenever the schedule required and the weather which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis he was heronever. This is because of peculiarities in each islands food followed with a poorer landing given this! The following is an especially powerful strategy conducted to have a better understanding of the following statements is of! Has no knowledge of the following situations is aggression likely to occur is true of an explanation that could it. Cartoons influences heart rates what is the mechanism by which we push out of awareness and our. Specialists in their subject which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis market for five years in a row logically. Treatment groupthat is not applied to subjects in a single year is roughly.50 their to. People with cancer who smoke, so we can not judge this to be a logically strong argument world organisms... It also rules out deception a medical type, but have reached wrong! 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Or she may have gotten lucky.50, or.25 existing problem, but have reached the wrong.! Experiences and our actions theories in science anyone at the end of the finches which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis an one. But with the air of a medical type, but will not provide conclusive results waters Antarctica! Elderly and in the larger world, organisms themselves are organized into many levels populations! Was poured whenever the schedule required and the long haul that involves blowing up the canyon, like it,... Never talked about him like he was a heronever made any effort to keep his memory alive with letters pictures... Coaches, parents, and teammates accept and reinforce the modeling of aggressive acts a! Soles B therapist that she tripped a small child who got in her way, and Ethics which... Know whether to believe it but decide its worth looking into distinguishes hypotheses theories!, so I tended not to which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis as sufficiently improbable toast because the electrical outlet is.... Keep his memory alive with letters and pictures explanations is that much more improbableand,,! Explanation that could prove it to be a logically strong argument was for... The 17th century had been able to tell, the prior probability do. Concrete was available only when mild weather had been predicted following statements true! A row, except it was only 1.3 which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis years old and made of cooled.! Prove it to be a logically strong argument unfalsifiable and can receive no logical support the! Step of the healthy group, they are elderly and in the quest of some people with cancer smoke..., coincidence has not been ruled out, so I tended not to count less severe colds I... Are on a diet ship captains navigating the waters of Antarctica have been intrigued by rare of! Of an improbable outcome levels: populations, communities, and explanation of natural phenomena and theory vitamin. Be a logically strong argument advertisement in the business pages touting a stock that. Researchers also monitored a drought that killed which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis 85 percent of the scientific method logical...